What ROK’s Earnings Track Record Actually Shows
Rockwell Automation has beaten consensus EPS in all eight of its most recently reported quarters, giving ROK a 100% beat rate over that span. The average earnings surprise across those eight prints is 13.6%, well above the narrow “inline” band that usually leaves a stock unchanged. The numbers behind the last four reports are:
- 2026-05-05: actual EPS $3.30 vs. estimate $2.88, a 14.6% surprise. The stock rose 5.37% the next session and 4.39% over the following five sessions.
- 2026-02-05: actual EPS $2.75 vs. estimate $2.47, an 11.3% surprise. The next-day move was +2.05%, but the five-day move was -6.07%.
- 2025-11-06: actual EPS $3.34 vs. estimate $2.94, a 13.6% surprise. The stock edged up 0.27% the next day and 1.93% over the next five sessions.
- 2025-08-06: actual EPS $2.82 vs. estimate $2.67, a 5.6% surprise. The next-day gain was 1.19%, and the five-day gain was 6.19%.
Averaged across the full eight-quarter sample, the five-trading-day post-earnings drift is 1.61% and is classified as “up.” That headline drift masks real dispersion: 2026-02-05 posted a -6.07% five-day drawdown in a quarter ROK still beat. The pattern says ROK usually exceeds estimates and often carries a positive drift, but the magnitude and direction of the immediate reaction vary quarter to quarter.
Options-Flow Dynamics Around the 2026-08-04 Before-Open Report
The next scheduled report is 2026-08-04 before the open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.38. The current snapshot shows ROK at $480.08, with RSI at 57.3, and the 50-day EMA at $458.74, meaning price is trading above that medium-term smoothing line heading into the event. In that environment, options implied volatility typically expands in the days ahead of the print as traders pay up for event insurance via calls, puts, or straddles.
The key flow dynamic is whether the market is pricing a realized move larger or smaller than historical post-earnings observations. With an average next-day move of roughly several percentage points and an average five-day drift of 1.61%, short-dated options can embed a premium that decays rapidly if the actual move undershoots. Conversely, the 100% beat rate and 13.6% average surprise are already partly reflected in dealer pricing and positioning, so the real trade is the gap between the reported EPS results, guidance tone, and the market’s real expectation—visible in options pricing and open-interest concentrations around strikes near $480.08.
A Disciplined Checklist for the Event
Rather than treating the 100% beat rate as a directional signal, a disciplined trader compares the upcoming consensus EPS of $3.38 with the five- and eleven-quarter sequences already on the books. The most relevant comparisons are the August-quarter print from 2025-08-06 (5.6% surprise, +6.19% five-day) and the May-quarter print from 2026-05-05 (14.6% surprise, +4.39% five-day), because cyclical order-flow and backlog commentary can repeat seasonally.
On the session after the 2026-08-04 report, watch whether the stock can hold the 50-day EMA at $458.74 or add to its $480.08 pre-event level. Also track whether RSI at 57.3 leaves room for follow-through, or whether an opening gap exhausts near-term momentum. Post-event options-flow clues include put/call skew changes and whether straddle buyers close the position quickly (vol crush) or add to direction. Finally, compare any management guidance to the unofficial consensus embedded in recent analyst revisions and options activity.
For a deeper read across ratings, sector positioning, and institutional risk factors, explore the full institutional verdict page on the platform.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often has ROK beaten EPS estimates in recent history?
Rok has beaten EPS estimates in all of its last eight reported quarters, a 100% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 13.6%.
What has been ROK’s average five-day post-earnings drift?
The average five-day price move in the five trading days after earnings across the last eight quarters is 1.61%, classified as an “up” drift. However, this average conceals dispersion, including a -6.07% five-day move following the 2026-02-05 report.
What are the current technical levels and consensus for the next ROK earnings report?
The next report is scheduled for 2026-08-04 before the open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.38. ROK’s current price is $480.08, its RSI is 57.3, and its 50-day EMA is $458.74.
| Reported | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | 1D Move | 5D Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | $3.3 | $2.88 | +14.6% | +5.37% | +4.39% |
| 2026-02-05 | $2.75 | $2.47 | +11.3% | +2.05% | -6.07% |
| 2025-11-06 | $3.34 | $2.94 | +13.6% | +0.27% | +1.93% |
| 2025-08-06 | $2.82 | $2.67 | +5.6% | +1.19% | +6.19% |
| 2025-05-07 | $2.45 | $2.1 | +16.7% | - | - |
| 2025-02-10 | $1.83 | $1.6 | +14.4% | - | - |
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